According to the Economic Intelligence Unit (EIU), President Bola Tinubu’s victory in the February 25 presidential election is not expected to be overturned by the court. EIU had previously projected that Tinubu would win the presidential poll. The report also predicts that the presidential candidate of the Labour Party (LP), Mr. Peter Obi, will emerge as a formidable force in 2027.
In the last presidential election, Tinubu, who was the candidate of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), emerged as the winner, defeating 17 other candidates with a total of 8,794,726 votes. The runner-up, Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), secured 6,984,520 votes, while Peter Obi came third with 6,101,533 votes.
Atiku and Obi are currently challenging Tinubu’s victory at the Presidential Election Petitions Court. However, EIU’s latest report suggests that the court is unlikely to overturn the results in favor of the challengers.
The report highlights Tinubu’s strategy of focusing on winning the support of the Muslim north, which has contributed to his electoral success. It also mentions that calls for secession from the Christian-majority south may become more prominent.
Since taking office in May, Tinubu has initiated significant market reforms, including deregulating the foreign-exchange market and petrol pricing. These reforms are expected to benefit the economy in the long run but may cause short-term hardships for consumers. The report indicates that the government’s ability to shield households from rising prices is limited, and this, combined with existing security crises, could lead to potential unrest and challenges in implementing the reforms.
Despite low popularity, Tinubu’s administration has undertaken substantial efforts towards market reform. However, EIU believes that as his political capital erodes, his reform agenda may lose momentum.
Regarding Nigerian politics, the report notes that party allegiances can be fluid and driven more by political convenience than ideology. The support for Peter Obi of the Labour Party in the previous presidential election demonstrated some frustration with the two-party system. Backed by unions, Obi is expected to build the party’s profile and become a more significant force leading up to the next election in 2027.
Founded in 1946, the Economic Intelligence Unit provides forecasts on economic trends, political forces, and industry developments in various countries, guiding informed decisions by businesses and policymakers.