Nasir El-Rufai, the controversial ex-Governor of Kaduna State, has raised concerns about the increasingly strained relationship between President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and northern Nigeria, warning that his political future may resemble that of former President Goodluck Jonathan ahead of the 2027 elections. El-Rufai made this bold assertion in a post shared on his verified X (formerly Twitter) handle, where he cautioned Tinubu’s supporters, particularly from the South West, of playing with fire.
El-Rufai’s remarks come amid a volatile political atmosphere and mounting critiques of Tinubu’s administration, which has seen rising dissatisfaction among APC members, especially in the north. On Tuesday, while hosting the President Bola Ahmed Tinubu Media Centre (PBAT Media Centre) and the Tinubu Northern Youth Forum (TNYF), APC National Chairman Dr. Abdullahi Ganduje dismissed the ambitions of any northern politicians eyeing the presidency in 2027. He emphasized that Tinubu’s leadership would serve the full two terms and promised adherence to the North-South zoning agreement—a key political strategy in Nigerian elections since the Fourth Republic.
In his post, El-Rufai alluded to his previous warnings regarding the dangers of disregarding northern interests, comparing the current political situation with that of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) before their loss of power in 2015. He warned that if the APC continues on its current path, it may risk repeating the same political mistakes made by the PDP, particularly their alienation of northern voters.
Drawing historical parallels to the fall of Jonathan’s presidency, El-Rufai stressed that the northern electorate remains a pivotal factor in Nigerian politics, and failure to engage with them respectfully could have dire consequences. He pointed to the example of Jonathan’s second-term defeat, which was largely due to the northern backlash following the perceived disrespect of the region.
Although acknowledging President Tinubu’s political skill, El-Rufai expressed concern over what he perceives as a growing arrogance among some of Tinubu’s supporters, primarily from the South-West. He emphasized that the north, with its undeniable political power, should never be underestimated. His warning echoed the lessons from past elections, where underestimating northern support led to significant electoral losses.
In addition to his political commentary, El-Rufai addressed claims of a planned arrest, denying any intention of self-imposed exile. He affirmed his commitment to staying in Nigeria despite the threats of arrest and detention, asserting that political intimidation would not deter him.
Meanwhile, Ganduje, while maintaining a firm stance on the APC’s internal unity, also assured that Tinubu’s administration is addressing the country’s challenges with corrective measures. He remained confident that the administration’s economic reforms would continue to yield positive outcomes.
The 2027 election is already shaping up to be a contentious one, with political leaders strategizing to maintain relevance and influence. As El-Rufai cautions against repeating past mistakes, the nation’s political landscape remains dynamic, with many eyes set on the future of the ruling party and its ability to navigate internal and external challenges.
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